# Is the economy affecting you where you live?



## Knight~Ryder (Dec 2, 2007)

I live in Alberta, the richest most prospering province in Canada, and I'm still seeing signs of this slump the world is having even here. The reason for the prosperity we were having is because we have the second biggest oil sands in the world (first is Saudi Arabia) It's located in Fort McMurray (check it out youself)

This province months ago couldnt find enough workers. People were coming all across canada just to get a job here. It's still like that, but many people have been laid off still.

"Without question, Alberta will be affected by the slowdown we're seeing in the United States," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist for ATB Financial. "Alberta can't escape this, but we're in the best possible shape one could imagine if there are headwinds coming."

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=160495

Me personally am not too affected by anything that is going on. Maybe it's because I live in the province I'm in. 

I am not sure how any of you are affected, but explain how things are in your area.


----------



## jones57742 (Sep 8, 2007)

Knight~Ryder said:


> I am not sure how any of you are affected, but explain how things are in your area.


KR:

In San Angelo (West Texas) we have felt it some but not much even with the serious drop in the price of oil (poor fellers are only making 75% as much as they were a few months ago :lol::lol::lol: as $80/BBL has dropped to $60/BBL but a bunch bought the production when it was like $10/BBL).

The residential housing market is down some but nothing like the 80% or more which is being experienced in many areas of the U.S.

TR


----------



## Knight~Ryder (Dec 2, 2007)

The price of gas here is 67 cents a litre. Back a few months ago it was a whopping $1.52 a litre. That's almost $6 a gallon! (and you guys thought you had it bad)

Now it's lower, but then look at the economy hey.


----------



## COM (Mar 15, 2008)

Well I live just outside of New York City, home to the financial sector meltdown.

By the numbers, real estate prices are down 20% and jobless claims are through the roof. In terms of how people are behaving, the malls are packed and there is still a several month wait to buy a new Prius.


----------



## emc7 (Jul 23, 2005)

Housing is way down here. We had some mortgage fraud and a lot of first-time buyers (young, single people) with 100% financing driving up the market. Now they can't get loans and foreclosures are selling for 20% of the tax valuation or less after the vandals have stripped everything of value, including the air-conditioners and all the wiring. If they re-value the tax digest based on sale prices, the county and school systems are going to be in even worse trouble (they close the offices on Friday allready) then the are now (which is bad, but not like IL where they are closing state parks). I know people with 2 houses because they bought one and just couldn't sell the other. Developers are bankrupt because they can't sell new houses and can finance anything. Unemployment is up, but not too bad here. A lot of retail and restaurants are standing empty, but a lot is still going strong. Malls are busy. 

Traffic is better, when gas was scare and $4.50/gallon it was way better. Light traffic is a bad sign since it means fewer people working and shopping.


----------



## trashion (Aug 24, 2007)

Hey COM, you say just outside NYC? Me too, where are ya?


----------



## Knight~Ryder (Dec 2, 2007)

Alright, let me give you a little insight into the business world. I have a shop in the worlds largest mall (West Edmonton Mall). Yes there is traffic in the mall, but no where near the same amount as years ago. Also, people are buying small items and such but not the bigger ticket items. 

My numbers are way way way more down then ever before. I even have sale signs up, but everyone thinks the signs are part of the woodwork.

Nothing I can really do except ride it out, even if I live in a prosperous province.


----------



## jones57742 (Sep 8, 2007)

Knight~Ryder said:


> even if I live in a prosperous province.


KR:

Your post does not appear to indicate this assertion to be true.

I presume that yall have sales' taxes?

Soon after the 1st of the year the 2008 sales' tax revenue for your area should be available and you can compare its' value with the values of preceding years (discounting for inflation and population variances as well as adjusting for tax rate changes would be appropriate). 

You may be tempted to try monthly analysis but this will not work due to the significant December bias which, as you own a shop, is now the reason which I believe that you generated this thread as your Xmas sales may be in the toilet.

Folks: 

Current local sales tax revenues compared to historic revenues (as modified as set forth above) are a very good indicator of local economic health.

Contrary to many economic theories this comparison is actually a leading indicator of new housing starts (which is, IMHO, the best leading long term (definition here is one to two years) indicator of economic health).





COM said:


> Well I live just outside of New York City, home to the financial sector meltdown.
> 
> By the numbers, real estate prices are down 20% and jobless claims are through the roof. In terms of how people are behaving, the malls are packed and there is still a several month wait to buy a new Prius.


COM:

You live in the world of "Old Money" (which is fairly stable) and new Prius' or future similar products will always have a waiting list.

I live in the world of "New Money" (which is very unstable). In the late 1970's, during a big oil boom, the largest Jaguar dealership in the United States was located between Midland and Odessa TX (approximately 120 NW of San Angelo). 

As best as I remember this dealership lasted about two years. 




emc7 said:


> We had some mortgage fraud and a lot of first-time buyers (young, single people) with 100% financing driving up the market.


IMHO this the real "heart of the problem nationally".

Greed is very potent emotion but it can be easily tempered.

IMHO if the officers of the fiduciaries in the late 1980's who got us into that mess would have spent 10 years in a federal pen (not the one with the golf course but the one with 6'4" fellers who were pressing 300lbs daily in the workout yard) we would not be in this current mess.

TR


----------



## Knight~Ryder (Dec 2, 2007)

jones57742 said:


> KR: I presume that yall have sales' taxes?


Yes, it got dropped down to 5% compared to 14-16% in the rest of the country. It's the lowest tax in the country.

The reason I say prosperous province is because, arecession means negative growth. Predictions are growth in Alberta will be 1.9% which is pretty good.


----------



## Osiris (Jan 18, 2005)

I am seeing friends who are tryin to sell houses not able to, and pushing a year marker, probably going to have to take a loss. 

For us personally, it isn't really effecting us much, I am in the tax business, our business tends to go up and up, recently made a deal with another company, so I actually will get a nice big increase in $$$ and work less hopefully! 

I have noticed not many people buying in the aquarium business, places closing up shop, corals which should go for way more aren't anymore, same with freshwater species.


----------



## fish_doc (Jan 31, 2005)

We have a chrysler plant in the next town over and 30 miles north there is another auto plant that was already scheduled to close permently. In addition to all those jobs there are many stores and restraunts closing. 
The sad part is we have always been a heavy manufacturing city. So yes things are getting rough. Even where I work. We have been in business for almost 90 years and have moved several other companies into our building. Some of you may have heard of some of these barber-colman, robertshaw, erie, comtrol and just this last year andover. In just the one company i started with we use to have over 1600 employes we now have less than 800 and that is not counting all the jobs that were lost when the other companies were moved in, and we are the 4th largest controls company in the world behind Honeywell, Johnson Controls, and Siemens. I have gone from working almost 80 hour weeks at the beginning of this year to them shutting down production for the next 2 weeks to build up orders so they hopefully dont have to do any more layoffs. Even with the shutdown I worked so much overtime at the beginning of the year I will end the year with over 700 hours of overtime this year.


----------



## COM (Mar 15, 2008)

trashion said:


> Hey COM, you say just outside NYC? Me too, where are ya?


I'm staying at the old homestead (aka my parent's house in Somers, NY, northeastern corner of Westchester county, home to Bronson Pinchot, Blondie, Tony Bennett, and Ralph Lauren) until I sell my house upstate. Then I'm getting an apartment in Manhattan.

Julie- where can I get some quality plants in Westchester? I can't find anything decent.


----------



## COM (Mar 15, 2008)

jones57742 said:


> COM:
> 
> You live in the world of "Old Money" (which is fairly stable) and new Prius' or future similar products will always have a waiting list.
> TR


"Old Money" bet the farm on Bernie Madoff.

Oops.


----------



## Knight~Ryder (Dec 2, 2007)

Baby_Baby said:


> Our unemployment rate last month was actually the lowest it has ever been at about 3%, meaning only 3 out of 100 people are unemployed.


In Ontario the unemployment rate is 7.2% 
That's pretty high.
No wonder everyone is coming to Alberta.


----------



## jones57742 (Sep 8, 2007)

Folks:

What 3% unemployment means is that everyone who is employable has a job and businesses are looking for help real serious.

TR


----------



## trashion (Aug 24, 2007)

COM(Isn't your name Chris? Ok if I call you that?)

I haven't found any quality plants in Westchester, but House of Fins in Greenwich, CT, has a very good selection of plants AND fish. Very pricey, but they're nice and will order most anything for you.


----------



## fish_doc (Jan 31, 2005)

our unemployment was at 9.5% back in Sept. I haven't heard any numbers lately but I wouldnt be supprised if it is higher.


----------



## COM (Mar 15, 2008)

Just a note about the "unemployment rate" (my major in college was Industrial and Labor Relations... I've taken several classes on this topic)

The "Unemployment" rate is the percent of people considered to be "participating in the the workforce / participating in the labor market" who have not held a "regular job" for a "certain period of time." All words or phrases in quotations are vague and are actually determined state by state.

Bottom line, once a person is out of work for about 18 months or so, they are generally considered no longer part of the workforce and not counted as unemployed when calculating rates. So that artificially lowers the unemployment rate. On the contrary, when the unemployment rate reaches 4%, we are technically at the condition of full employment, as 4% is considered the structural unemployment rate. That's the unemployment rate that is assumed to always exist because of people changing jobs for various reasons.


----------



## jones57742 (Sep 8, 2007)

COM:

My post was mostly intended to be humor and I am not being argumentative here but only presenting additional information.

As you are aware several theories exist with respect to this topic.

When the unemployment rate is 4% many "help wanted" signs are observed but when the rate is 3% a ton are observable (and I am employing the term "help wanted" for simplification).

At 3% the frictional portion is indeed unemployable ie. workers comp claims, unemployment claims, adverse recommendations, etc and will soon become not a part of the work force.

TR


----------



## TheOldSalt (Jan 28, 2005)

Unemployment claims make someone unemployable? Losing one's job makes it extra difficult to get an new one?
Well, there's something very wrong with that.
I'm also not very happy with the fact that getting injured at work by the idiocy of others makes me less employable. It's not my fault that some horseplaying moron came around a corner and hit me in the mouth with a pipe, resulting in my immediate need for dental work. Why can't I get a decent job because of that? It's not fair. That was 16 freakin' years ago, and it's cost me more jobs than I can even remember ever since.


----------



## justintrask (Jun 29, 2008)

I got my foot run over by a cherry-picker on the job. Luckily I don't work in construction.


----------



## InuGirlTeen (Oct 26, 2008)

Small town in southern Indiana, here. Noticable changes? Gas became cheaper. Food was always high for us. Things have only gotten better. =P


----------



## jones57742 (Sep 8, 2007)

TheOldSalt said:


> Unemployment claims make someone unemployable? Losing one's job makes it extra difficult to get an new one?
> Well, there's something very wrong with that.
> I'm also not very happy with the fact that getting injured at work by the idiocy of others makes me less employable. It's not my fault that some horseplaying moron came around a corner and hit me in the mouth with a pipe, resulting in my immediate need for dental work. Why can't I get a decent job because of that? It's not fair. That was 16 freakin' years ago, and it's cost me more jobs than I can even remember ever since.


TOS: I "thought long and hard" about responding but have gone back to this thread and am doing so.

My comments were applicable to habitual abusers of the system who are also, IMHO, the ones who have their "take a percent of the settlement" and "hot tennie shoe" attorneys' phone numbers memorized.

I sympathize with you.

A ex-con (10 years in the pen for dope) whose was (is still) on parole applied to help the senior field party chief who hired him about six years ago.

He has been first class, learned the basics of field GPS surveying and some of the basics of terrestrial surveying, he is now capable of running a field party for some tasks and you can count on him 100%.

He has "house-sit" for me several times when I was at Scott & White and at Austin.

I hope that the above monologue dissuades you from what you believe is my non-egalitarianism.

TR


----------



## COM (Mar 15, 2008)

TheOldSalt said:


> Unemployment claims make someone unemployable? Losing one's job makes it extra difficult to get an new one?
> Well, there's something very wrong with that.
> I'm also not very happy with the fact that getting injured at work by the idiocy of others makes me less employable. It's not my fault that some horseplaying moron came around a corner and hit me in the mouth with a pipe, resulting in my immediate need for dental work. Why can't I get a decent job because of that? It's not fair. That was 16 freakin' years ago, and it's cost me more jobs than I can even remember ever since.


That's probably because you are living in a state (probably a southern state) with employment laws that dramatically empower employers to exert all sorts of discriminatory practices against workers.


----------



## Manthalynn (Aug 23, 2008)

Just to add a West Coast voice to the fray, yes, I'm seeing the crunch and if I still worked, I'd be feeling the crunch.

I live on the Central Coast of California (a VERY expensive and affluent area) and am seeing businesses shutting down in droves in the past couple months. Stores that have just opened earlier this year are closing down again (Circuit city, Mervyns, Linen's ' Things, Blockbuster video, Albertson's, etc - not poor mom and pop stores).

The problem here is that we're such an affluent area that the landlords are refusing to lower their rents to reasonable prices and keep wanting to get in higher profile stores (like the new Anthropology, Abercrombie and Fitch, Pottery Barn, etc). But they're going to realizing that they can't just ride out a couple months of no tennants in this economy.

I'm a student, living on loans and scholarships and working a research position job. Thankfully, my department has more scholarships than students that apply for them. But it will be interesting to see if the offered scholarships go down next year. So I'm dirt poor anyway and never considered buying a TV, or new computer or furniture for the next few years anyway.

At the company I used to work for, they are keeping workers at only 20 hours a week (instead of 60 hours during our busy season in Ag) and they have a strict policy of no overtime whatsoever right now (overtime used to be budgeted in due to the round the clock demands of growing plants). And their sales are plummeting. So while I'm not feeling any more of a tangible pinch from the economy, emotionally, I'm hearing it everywhere and that stresses me out.

Gas is holding steady at $1.89 right now. The Bay Area (San Francisco area) where my folks live is even slightly cheaper than here! And they're the second most expensive place to live in the country (next to Manhattan) or so I've heard.
*
Does anyone know why gas prices lowered?* My sister thinks it's due to the bailout, but I don't think the OPEC in charge of barrel prices really give a rat's patootie about North America's economy. What caused the barrel prices to lower? (I also noticed a headline that said OPEC was considering its first reduction in drilling in a long time. I'm assuming this will cause gas to go up again?)


----------



## Manthalynn (Aug 23, 2008)

Knight Ryder, you'll be happy to know that as an ignorant American, I actually do know lots about Alberta (and slip into some canadian-ese occasionally thanks to an old roommate from Lethbridge). 

I'm not sure where the balance is, because I know you pay WAY more taxes than we do, but at least your people aren't going without health care. I read an article about health care in the states recently. Health care and doctors visits are one of the first things people are giving up during this economy crunch.

Have you heard anything about the government cutting back on health care spending or making it more difficult to see a doctor? Just curious.


----------



## jones57742 (Sep 8, 2007)

Manthalynn said:


> *Does anyone know why gas prices lowered?*


Sam: This is an easy one - $80/Barrel oil.

Significant capital was expended on and off shore in drilling, fracking and sanding, etc. in anticipation that the price would probably not drop below $40/Barrel and hence the current available national production.

TR

BTW: these may be secondary effects, are speculations and I hope that assassination is not forthcoming for expressing them (note that I am neither a Republican or a Democrat but more of a libertarian by its' definition).

One: During the height of the gas prices domestic refineries were producing gasoline somewhere around 70% of capacity (I know, I know: the national press said differently) as more money could be made refining other petroleum products.

The fear of intense scrutinization and subsequent publication by the Obama Administration of this condition .... (ie. you get the drift).


Two: The EPA has really cycled out of control: per the Constitution its' regulatory authority should not exist: this cycling out of control, IMHO, started with its' involvement in the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Project cancellation (1970 to 1983) and has continued to present.

The Bush Administration, via internal and external efforts, pressured the EPA to allow upgrades to existing petroleum refining facilities as well as construction of new petroleum refining facilities without the expenditure of decades and hundreds of millions of $ in permitting costs.


----------



## COM (Mar 15, 2008)

jones57742 said:


> The Bush Administration, via internal and external efforts, pressured the EPA to allow upgrades to existing petroleum refining facilities as well as construction of new petroleum refining facilities without the expenditure of decades and hundreds of millions of $ in permitting costs.


But there have not been any new refineries approved and only one major expansion (Marathon's Garyville plant, I think) to date.


----------



## jones57742 (Sep 8, 2007)

COM said:


> But there have not been any new refineries approved and only one major expansion (Marathon's Garyville plant, I think) to date.


COM:

Do you know how to access the various databases in order to ascertain how many permits have been applied for within the last year or so as this will be leading indicator.

TR


----------

